Most importantly, and in line with IPCC and common approaches to mitigation, the global temperature increase must be limited to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. In order to conclude on whether we succeed with this, a time horizon longer than 2030 is needed. Our forecast looks at 2050 and the indicator we chose is accumulated CO2 emissions from pre-industrial times. We hold the view that the main measure of success or failure of this goal should be whether we succeed with limiting global warming.
On the mitigation part of this target, the planet succeeds or fails together. Furthermore, our model reflects our current limited understanding and does not allow for differential regional adaptation efforts. Therefore all regions are said to suffer similarly.
Our most likely forecast is that carbon emissions will remain at a level that empties the remaining carbon budget in 2037, and continues thereafter. We are therefore unlikely to meet the goal, and give a red rating. There is little uncertainty in this assessment. Adaptation efforts are not counted as part of the overall ranking here, but it is clear that the adaptation capacity is highest in USA and OECD.
Understanding the score
Five regions: USA, OECD (excl. USA), China, BRISE (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and 10 other emerging economies), ROW (rest of the world).
Green light: Goal likely to be reached.
Orange light: Goal not likely to be reached, but more than 50% of the gap between today's status and the goal is likely to be closed.
Red light: Goal not likely to be reached, and less than 50% of the gap between today's status and the goal is likely to be closed.